Four Republicans want to be your next governor. One is a congressman who barely shows up for the job he was elected to perform. One is a lieutenant governor who barely got started. One is a hedge fund kid treating the entire campaign like a content creator audition. And one presided over the most conservative legislative session in Florida history.
You don’t need a crystal ball. You just need to look at what each man has actually done.
Byron Donalds: Bought and Absent
Byron Donalds wants you to believe he’s a fighter. But his voting record tells a different story. During his time in Congress, Donalds missed a significant number of votes – the kind of absenteeism that makes you wonder who exactly he’s working for. A representative who doesn’t show up is a representative who’s either checked out or taking orders from people who prefer he stay quiet.
Then there’s the AI hyperscale data center question. Donalds has positioned himself as the champion of massive data center expansion in Florida. That kind of development would drain billions of gallons of water annually and consume electricity on the scale of entire cities. These facilities aren’t being pushed because they benefit Floridians. They’re being pushed because well-connected tech interests want cheap land, minimal regulation, and a compliant state government to rubber-stamp their projects.
Donalds looks less like a governor-in-waiting and more like a man who’s already been purchased. The missed votes, the data center advocacy, the general sense that he’s punching a clock for someone else’s agenda. None of this screams “Free State of Florida.” It screams “open for business to the highest bidder.”
Jay Collins: Green and Untested
Jay Collins served his country honorably, and that deserves respect. But military service doesn’t automatically qualify someone to run the third-largest state in the union. Collins served only a partial term as a State Senator before being tapped as Lieutenant Governor. His was a political apprenticeship that was cut short before it really began.
Look at the bills he sponsored. One offered immunity to manufacturers of glyphosate. Granting legal protection for the companies producing a herbicide that’s been at the center of massive litigation over cancer risks. Whatever your position on glyphosate, the question is: why is a freshman senator spending his limited political capital shielding out-of-state chemical manufacturers from accountability?
He also sponsored legislation giving data centers tax exemptions. Sound familiar? Different name, same playbook: roll out the red carpet for big tech while the average Floridian’s electric bill climbs.
Collins has accepted significant money from groups whose interests don’t align with maintaining Florida’s sovereignty. A man who hasn’t finished learning how the legislature works is now asking to run the whole state. He needs more time in the trenches before he’s ready for the commander’s tent.
James Fishback: The Rage-Bait Candidate
Then there’s James Fishback; a 31-year-old hedge fund operator whose résumé reads like a series of failed auditions: dropped out of Georgetown, terminated from Greenlight Capital (and slapped with a $229,000 judgment for breach of contract), founded an ETF that got shut down by his own company’s board, falsely claimed to be a DOGE adviser, and unsuccessfully campaigned for a Federal Reserve Board nomination. When none of that worked out, he pivoted to running the third-largest state in America.
Fishback’s entire campaign strategy is transparent: say the most provocative thing possible, get clipped, go viral, repeat. He referred to Byron Donalds as a “slave to corporate interests” and as “By’rone.” When called on it, he accused his critics of “tone policing.” That’s not courage. That’s a business model. His signature policy proposal before jumping into the race was a 50% “Sin Tax” on OnlyFans creator income. That kind of thing sounds edgy on a podcast but has zero to do with grocery costs, insurance rates, or illegal immigration. Florida isn’t a meme stock. It’s a state of 23 million people.
Fishback has also been described as the first “Groypers” political candidate. This is a movement associated with white nationalist Nick Fuentes. He courts these associations deliberately, deploying “rage-bait” tactics designed to build a following among the most online, most alienated corners of Gen Z conservatism. That may build a Twitter following. It does not build a coalition capable of governing.
The real danger with Fishback isn’t that he’ll win – he won’t. It’s that he’ll suck up oxygen, pull the primary debate into the gutter, and force serious candidates to waste time responding to whatever radioactive thing he said this week instead of debating property tax reform and insurance costs. He’s noise, not signal.
Paul Renner: The Record Speaks
Paul Renner doesn’t need to tell you what he’d do as governor. He can show you what he already did as Speaker of the Florida House.
Renner presided over what even his critics acknowledged was a historically productive legislative session – the “Session of the Century.” The accomplishments weren’t cosmetic. They were structural:
On the economy and your wallet:
- Billions in tax cuts, including permanent sales tax exemptions on diapers and baby products — relief aimed at working families, not corporate donors
- Lawsuit abuse reform that produced the first insurance premium reductions Florida had seen in 30 years
- A budget that maintained record reserves while increasing state employee pay and funding critical infrastructure
On protecting kids:
- The Pro-Life Heartbeat Protection Bill
- Ending transgender surgery for minors and protecting girls’ sports
- Unprecedented child protections from social media exploitation
On the environment and Florida’s future:
- Record investments in land conservation and the Florida Wildlife Corridor
- Fully funding Everglades cleanup
- Major initiatives to stop illegal immigration
The Data Center Litmus Test
If you want to know whose interests a candidate serves, ask them about AI hyperscale data centers.
Donalds is all-in, championing an industry that would drain billions of gallons of water and consume enough electricity to power entire cities. All so out-of-state tech giants can get cheap land and minimal regulation. Collins sponsored the tax breaks to sweeten the deal. Even Fishback, for all his theatrics, has stumbled onto the right position here.
But Renner has called for a full stop. He’s explicitly named the strain these facilities place on water resources, electric grids, and environmentally sensitive land. The difference is that Renner’s opposition comes from governing experience and a clear-eyed assessment of what these projects actually cost Floridians, not from whatever’s trending on X this week. He’s saying what no bought politician will say: Florida’s resources belong to Floridians.
Affordability – the Issue That Actually Matters
Ask any Florida family what keeps them up at night and it’s not culture war abstractions. It’s the property tax bill. The insurance premium. The electric bill. The cost of everything.
Renner’s “Florida First Affordability Plan” is the most ambitious property tax reform proposal in state history. A well thought out $34 billion relief package centered on a $1 million homestead exemption that would eliminate property taxes for roughly 95% of homeowners. He’s proposing shifting costs onto out-of-state speculators, private equity firms buying up residential housing, and tourists – while protecting permanent residents, renters, and small businesses.
Contrast that with the field: Donalds has been largely absent on affordability. Collins’s legislative record suggests he’s more comfortable cutting deals for corporate interests than cutting taxes for families. And Fishback’s “abolish property taxes” pitch has no roadmap, no offset mechanism, and no evidence he understands the difference between a campaign slogan and a budget.
Renner’s plan isn’t populist rhetoric. He is a proven legislative veteran who knows exactly where the levers of power are and how to pull them. He has already delivered insurance premium reductions through lawsuit abuse reform. He’s already delivered billions in tax cuts. He’s not guessing at what works – he’s done it.
The Bottom Line
Florida is at a crossroads. The “Free State” brand that DeSantis built is only as durable as the people entrusted to defend it. The wrong governor could unravel a decade of conservative gains in a single term.
Byron Donalds has the absentee record and the tech-industry alignment of a man who’s already moved on from serving constituents to serving donors.
Jay Collins has promise, but he’s untested. Partial-term senator, political appointee, bill sponsor for chemical company immunity. This isn’t the résumé of someone ready to lead 23 million people.
James Fishback isn’t even in the same category. He’s a performance artist running a rage-bait content operation that happens to have “governor” in the title. His résumé is a string of failures, and his campaign is an insult to voters who take this decision seriously.
Paul Renner is the only candidate in this race who has already done the job of advancing Florida’s conservative agenda at the highest level of state government. He’s a Navy veteran who served in two combat zones. He’s a former prosecutor who put violent felons behind bars. And as Speaker, he delivered results that Floridians can see in their tax bills, their insurance premiums, and their children’s schools.
Four Republicans want the job. Three are auditioning. One already did it.
That’s Paul Renner.
The views and opinions of the author do not necessarily reflect those of The Liberty Sentinel.
Saga Stevin is a published author, former candidate for Mayor, and founder of Floridian Future – where she helps grassroots Floridians understand how Tallahassee works. She keeps a close eye on legislation that affects our sovereign freedoms, especially in the financial and health fields. She lives in Florida and wears many hats to count.